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20 sats \ 3 replies \ @orthwyrm 4 Jul 2023 \ on: Bond Villain bitcoin
Say what you want about Balaji's shitcoin escapades over at Coinbase, but he does spin a good yarn. Particularly here:
This time last year, I don't recall a single analyst who thought the Fed would hike this far. Partly because it was in opposition to what they had previously signaled, but mostly because the debt burden was already monstrous. Hiking interest on that debt makes it even more unserviceable... yet here we are.
It's for reasons such as this that I don't find the macro analysts to be all that compelling. It's not because they're unintelligent; on the contrary, figures like Lyn Alden are very smart. But there's only so much predictive analysis you can do when clowns are in the driver's seat. Who knows where the car will swerve next.
After the COVID lockdowns i stopped looking at the powers that be as clowns. It was a paradigm shift. They are demons now, and they go out of their way to cause harm. This is why i knew the interest rates would reach these levels this fast and also why i know they will keep going up. They want blood. They are demons. And there is little we can do to heal them. Thats all.
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Agree completely. I have been susceptible to this line of thinking too. You assume there is a rational actor in charge.
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Yes. Directionally I think the macro heads are correct (i.e. brrrrrr), but who knows what will happen in the short to medium term.
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