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There has been a lot of buzz in the media nowadays regarding the BRICS nations and their attempt to challenge the US dollar as a global reserve asset/currency
Will it work? And to what extent?
I have no idea, it's very hard to say and involves many factors outside my scope of understanding, but this is my thought on the matter:
  • Sanctions: Whether or not you agree with what's happening in Ukraine with regards to the war, as well as how the US imposed sanctions on Russian reserves and seizure of assets, it's clear that other world leaders from both sides were spooked by the reality of how easily the US can hurt you by simply freezing your US dollar reserves. It's not a fun reality to live in whereby you have to play by whatever rules the US make, or lose access to your global reserve currency, that you thought you owned, especially if you have little to no recourse. If they think your stepping out of line, you get the diplomatic spray bottle to the face
  • Inflation (of the money supply): When the US "printed" billions of dollars to hand out to their citizens and financial institutions during the period of the coronavirus pandemic, from a technical standpoint, everyone holding US dollars as reserves paid for that stimulus. I know people like going on about how stupid/idiotic most of our world leaders are, but I disagree. They probably aren't the brightest, but on average I don't think they are morons, they each just have their own, unclear agenda. I bet there are a lot of world leaders fuming over how the dollar waterfall was spent/allocated, if they feel that they didn't receive their fair share (which they almost certainly didn't). They know the magnitude of the cost they had to (and still have to) carry and it's a pretty hefty price to pay that has to be outweighed by the advantage of using the, ever so value decreasing, dollar
  • Political uncertainty: Investors and countries around the world obviously have a hard time dealing with "bad" news, but sometimes its even harder to deal with uncertainty. I sometimes follow US politics out of pure amazement regarding some of the things they say and do because they are often very similar to what lying, tyrannic and inhumane leaders of far worse off countries do, but with fancy suits, "equality/racism" and billions of dollars thrown in the mix. Recently it just started to feel like they started a political war with themselves, weaponizing their intelligence agencies against each other and constantly fighting, not for their country, but for their own parties. Who knows what can come of something like that if it gets even more out of hand? It might just be the particular exposure to media that I get that's gaslighting me, but if even half of the ongoing situations are true, it's quite scary and unpredictable
  • Alternatives: As a global reserve currency for countries, there is no alternative at this point. They all have too much of craving for control at this point to use something like Bitcoin in my opinion, so they would want to use something where they at least have some control? They must surely recognize that it's a big risk to have one country centrally control the reserve currency (as the US has demonstrated), and might even recognize that having a few countries control an alternative reserve currency, might help to put a leash on the all mighty dollar? The BRICS nations have a lot of human and other natural resources that are native to their countries, they produce a large chunk of food that gets exported to the rest of the world and each of them have international deals with various other countries, so why wouldn't other nations try to strike up a nice deal for themselves by cozying up with the collective of countries that are trying to provide said alternative? Apparently, the BRICS nations are going to make the currency gold-backed. If I was a world leader that knows the basics of economics and money, I would think that such a currency that's not 100% central and spread among a handful of countries that I can negotiate nice trade deals with (possibly), I would give it a shot as an alternative to the dollar during these, already very crazy and uncertain, times
And if I was an honest leader, trying to fight for the wellbeing of my population and not my own (or my party's interests), I might even be crazy enough to back a group of countries that consider using Bitcoin as their reserve currencies, seeing as it would signal to me that none of us would have control over it and we would all have to play fair
A multipolar world will need a GLUE to connect the US system and the BRICS system, this is bitcoin. A global BRICS system guarantees that the US cannot ban btc from existence.
The three systems will run in parallel. Over time btc will take over from the other two as it becomes more and more obvious that there is only one choice and the younger generations grown older.
Eventually, the countries that get into bitcoin first will be the most neglected. Then the countries with the least to gain from the US system and brics system. And then finally the large nations themselves when they see the writing on the wall and cause a huge FOMO.
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The dollar-based world order is definitely viewed as a problem, but I don't think these countries have an interest in a decentralized currency; they'd much rather have a powerful currency that they, and not the US, control.
Gold backed currency is interesting but you'd have to trust that the currency is truly exchangeable. All countries left the standard in the 20th century, i.e. reneged on their commitment. I certainly wouldn't trust China or Russia to behave differently.
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Yes they would definitely want something they can exert control over at the moment. Hopefully more countries adopt Bitcoin for their own reasons over time. Or even if the populations start adopting and using it enough then government approval might become a given if they want the approval of their people?
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