30 sats \ 3 replies \ @ElectronicsQuestions 18 May 2023 \ parent \ on: What if we're wrong? bitcoin
Of course not, you won't lose the sats, but the sats may lose most of their purchasing power, even very long term. The possibility and probability of that is the subject of this entire discussion. If we look at Bitcoin's history, the probability seems extremely low, but if we look at governments all around the world being scared of losing their power to print and control money, it's a bit more complicated. I don't know the probability, but it's not in the low single digits, nor in the high nineties, in my estimate.
Let's imagine the extreme case (which seems extremely unlikely, but so did most of the world's governments' response to Covid-19, and its peoples' obedience to it): US, Canada, EU, Russia, China, etc. feel so threatened that they, over a few years, escalate until any dealings with Bitcoin is punishable by death (even in countries that didn't have capital punishment before), and they threaten to nuke any country that doesn't prohibit its use the same way. As I said, I don't think the Bitcoin network would go down even in that case, at least not in the first 10-100 years, depending on many factors, but it would probably deter at least some 99.999% of the world's population from transacting, mining, running nodes, etc. More might HODL what they already have, since it's passive, potentially undetectable and plausibly deniable ("I deleted the keys when it became illegal").
Do you think BTC would retain more than 1% of its current purchasing power in that case, or go back above that level again before either the laws for some reason are revoked, or the situation in the world because of fiat becomes so bad that people perceive a similar risk of death from not using Bitcoin as from being discovered using it?
There was once a death penalty on using printing presses in certain countries, because of "dissemination of dangerous information". Nothing is more dangerous than a threatened ruling class. The printing press obviously won anyway, but since Bitcoin is internet native, and the internet is surveilled by the NSA and similar agencies around the world, and gets more restricted and surveilled for every year that passes, I don't think Bitcoin's chances are as high in such a scenario as those the printing press had.
Once again, this is a thought experiment, I'm not saying something like that is likely, and you're welcome to explain why it, or some more-or-less similar clampdown, is completely impossible or couldn't affect the purchasing power in that way etc., but I don't believe Bitcoin is completely invincible. Highly resilient, but not infinitely so.
You need to zoom out from the Bitcoin issue.
What you describe is total tyranny and if people submit to laws like that then we have a much bigger issue than money.
My people overthrew their communist dictators in the 90s. War is recent and ongoing for people all around the world. The kind of war where bullets and shells hit your house or your neighbors. Our relative comfort in “the west” has spoiled us. We are mostly fat lazy pathetic tax slaves.
Bitcoin is part of fight for liberty globally. This battle will never be over or “won” - it is ongoing and ceaseless. Even at the peaks of human liberty after major victories- one slip of the watch allows the festering parasite of tyranny to return. It grows and grows, consuming more and more of its host- until the remnant rips it out by its bloody roots and we can again find peace.
reply
"What you describe is total tyranny and if people submit to laws like that then we have a much bigger issue than money."
Exactly. What I mean is that every sign points to the vast majority of people actually submitting to whatever their government says, at least in "developed" countries (makes you wonder what kind of "development" is meant...). I have had hope that there would be a breaking point where at least a substantial, loud-voiced minority would stand up and say "no more", and get traction, but for every year that passes, it seems less and less likely.
Yes, Bitcoin, certain groups of activists, programmers, etc. are trying, but the vast majority chooses not even the easy way, but the compliant way. If Bitcoin becomes so easy to use and beneficial that it saves hours of the day and increases living standard by 2X (which I'd argue it already is and can in some cases), and it became illegal, even if just a hefty fine, the vast majority wouldn't use it.
Most people don't know the first thing about keeping their tracks hidden, but even more people wouldn't keep using Bitcoin even if they knew they could stay perfectly hidden (which is impossible to know for certain), because they don't want to break the law. They think the law is what decides what is morally and ethically right.
Maybe it will be different if there are "example countries", such as if El Salvador is allowed to flourish for 5-15 years, much like communist countries' populations found out about the prosperity in more capitalist ones.
Since Bitcoin is global however, that would require that nothing too damaging happens in the rest of the world until then, or El Salvador will be dragged down along the rest of the Bitcoin value, and probably make their people demand they end the experiment.
I believe it's more of a race against time than an endless battle. Bitcoin soon-ish or Bitcoin never, or at least not for a hundred years or more.
reply
Again, Bitcoin is a big part but not the only thing.
When tyranny takes over the empire/country falls.
The best people leave or are imprisoned.
Other countries get the opportunity to be leaders.
The system naturally resets. We are arguing to avoid all the pain and suffering…. But we will go through it and the fall of each empire if the tyrants never stop trying.
They will never win
reply