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This weekend the possibility of capital controls being implemented by US banks has been raised in a few places. The Hugh Hendry video is a topic here on SN
Is this a realistic threat?
I doubt it, but US banks have issues that can't be fixed. While financial media continue to push the idea that the US government should guarantee bank deposits, that supposed solution fully socializes the financial system while failing to solve the problem. Deposits will continue to drain as people buy treasuries either directly or through money markets to get a more reasonable yield. The government can't solve that problem unless drastic rate cuts are implemented immediately.
That seems a more likely outcome to me than capital controls. The Cypress solution seems drastic, as it would permanently destroy what's left of worldwide trust in the US dollar.
An old guy can serve convenient quote for almost every situation:
"There is no cruelty or wickedness that an otherwise benign and liberal government would not commit when it ran out of money." (Alexis de Tocqueville)
That's the only correct answer to your question ;))
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No doubt. I just think it might not be in their own best interest to go there yet, since they need to try to preserve some semblence of credibility. "Global reserve asset" is all they have left.
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I don't know about capital controls, but JP Morgan predicts the gov will ban stock shorting soon like it did in 2008.
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Very likely. Hedge funds are also limiting or banning redemptions. Things are moving quickly.
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Yes but they will give it some esoteric name and swear it is not capital controls.
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As much as I despise his takes on Bitcoin and find him guilty of profiteering over perpetually catastrophizing, I think Jim Rickards lays out an interesting scenario in Road to Ruin, where he describes an economic freeze using an analogy from the novel Cat's Cradle where a substance called ice-nine, which freezes water at room temp, infects all other water on earth.
Anyways road to ruin is a good read or listen if you are interested. Otherwise you can probably find an interview where he lays the theory out.
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Agree 💯 on Rickards, but I am a Vonnegut fan! I'll check out Road to Ruin
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I've been places harsh capital controls were implemented... no one expects it.
Without self custody over your fund you don't own them, you only have a right to manage them under whatever rules they make up today.
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The USA ALREADY HAS CAPITAL CONTROLS. Sending money overseas you are limited to 100k per business day. This is enforced by the banks on every normal person for supposed AML reasons.
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