This is a thread for random discussions that gets posted everyday at 5am central.
Tell us what you're doing today, ask questions, or vent about your life. Whatever you want, let it rip!
10 sats \ 0 replies \ @nullama 20 Apr 2023
$787.5M seems like a small amount of money to settle a case against alleged defamation from Fox News.
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33 sats \ 5 replies \ @faithandcredit 19 Apr 2023
If it wasnt for Microstratregy i think Bitcoin price would be in a healthier state rn
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33 sats \ 4 replies \ @faithandcredit 19 Apr 2023
(Imo the fair value is around $3k!! but ppl like microstrategy have bid it up to crazy levels and are betting on growth that just doesent seem to be present atm.)
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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 19 Apr 2023
At 3k you are implying bitcoin has a 99.7% chance to go to zero and a .3% chance to go to 1M. Seems kinda light don't you think?
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @faithandcredit 19 Apr 2023
it maybe has a 99% probability of going to $3k but a 0.3% chance to go to $0
This assumes growth over the next 10 years will be minimal+other things. But lets see.
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16 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 19 Apr 2023
Adoption metrics are still good, lightning network is growing, hash rate is growing. Maybe we aren't in hyperbolic growth stage right now. There is a lot of damage from the crypto chaos of the last bull run and people watching bitcoin go from 69k to 16k. Economic risk, regulatory risk. There is a lot going on. Maybe we stagnate for awhile or maybe we have another round of the same old 4 year halving cycles. Personally, I would prefer if the halving cycles just went away and we had steady growth instead of the insane volatile swings but I don't think that is in the cards quite yet.
I have been skeptical of the recent move up. Not so much the bounce off of 16k to low 20s but the move up and above 30k, I think has really been manipulation to try and get eth to move as a high beta before large players can withdraw their eth rewards from the past 2.5 years. I expect volatility to continue as traders/speculators are playing futures aggressively right now and the withdraws likely take another couple weeks to play out.
If we have a major credit event in tradFi I think we will see a big and quick move down but I don't think it will be to 3k. Maybe if we have a prolonged depression or if there is some sort of ban on bitcoin from US or Europe.
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540 sats \ 0 replies \ @faithandcredit 19 Apr 2023
The major credit event is unfolding as we speak. Markets have not accepted the new reality of 5% interest rates yet. But it is a very serious situation.
The intent of raising rates to fight inflation is to cause this credit event. They want to cause unemployment af, so that demand and consumption drops. Its a terrible strategy if you ask me, but its the only one they have, if the fed is the only tool they are going to use to combat inflation and it looks like they are. (They can shrink government spending, decrease taxes, motivate productivity with some real leadership+more BUT THEY ARENT)
And i think the US gov will default on its debt this year. I tried to figure out what will happen in such an event, and other than pissing a lot of people off basically the US government will have to shrink spending about 30% or more. Considering that US government spending is such a big portion of GDP it will cause significant unemployment. My concern is that the US government then gets a clean slate and the economic conditions to implement all kinds of welfare and otherwise terrible policies to try and fight this unemployment. But all thats going to do to is cause a new great depression imo. which is bad for most asset prices (They may be deprssed but they may also be in serious shortage at the same time). But lets see.
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17 sats \ 0 replies \ @franzap 19 Apr 2023
Had a random thought about bitcoin and traditional gender roles/sexual polarity.
Human species compared to the Bitcoin network.
Miners are the masculine force who do the hard work and protect the network. Nodes are the feminine force, the selector of the network, who simply accept or reject miner's proposals.
Both are complementary and the result is that truth is rewarded, helping to grow the network.
(Truth in Bitcoin is well-defined and much more extreme than in humans)
Maybe someone wrote something more elaborate along these lines.
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144 sats \ 1 reply \ @orthwyrm 19 Apr 2023
Day 4 of snailposting everyday 'til BTC hits $100k.
__@_'-'
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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @colourorange 19 Apr 2023
rooting for you, little dude!! you'll get there!
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243 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 19 Apr 2023
Bitcoin empowers people. Everyone in my house is too scared to fight for their rights in court because they may lose and have to pay a lot.
But with bitcoin, no one can take it away from you. They may don't even know you have bitcoin.
I have been arguing a lot with the property management lately and instead of trying to find solutions together, they always just threaten with lawsuits. Even when explaining to them how it makes no sense what they are claiming because the law explicitly says this is not allowed.
Well, I guess we will see each other in court then.
If I lose (which I highly doubt after all the research I did and consulting I had), I may have to pay a huge bill, yes. But I am just a poor student. So I would pay that bill over years probably. Will be totally worth it for the court experience and to show them that they can't just do what they want without consequences.
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