Think in cycles. Because bitcoin works in cycles. Each cycles has of course its own fluctuation dynamics, but this is simply re-equilibration before the next one (halving).

The most convenient way to look at bitcoin dynamics is the log-log plot ($ price vs. time). It essentially shows a linear trend. A linear trend on a log-log scale is indicative of a scaling law.

Most scaling laws in physics and mathematics are polynomial and this is not accidental. Rather, this property is tightly related to self-similarity – when a process (bitcoin price dynamics from the very beginning till infinity) and a part of it (e.g. from 2016 to 2020) appear to have the same structure when compared. It is also not differentiable at any point, so no short-term predictions are possible.

Thus, it doesn’t make much sense to look at bitcoin price every day, or even every week/month. It follows a scaling law that determines its dynamics over decades.

For those of you who are more into math and fractals: