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I find this to be a coherent argument. I don't think many technical Bitcoiners would be allergic to such a discussion. I'd categorize this as less a problem with blocksize and more a problem of governance generally. Hard forking the network is just a problem in and of itself and they'll probably only happen when the network is desperate. Hypothetical need/want isn't enough even for a soft fork.
I think the best thing you can do if you're concerned about the issue is follow Rusty's lead and promote the discussion more, so that if this problem appears people are a little more open to hard forking.
I was totally closed off from any blocksize increase at all but changed my mind when I saw it from a lightning perspective. I wonder if other never-forkers would be susceptible to the same framing.