I think what might stop the old gold-fiat-collapse type pattern is the inability to confiscate Bitcoin. There probably will be credit bubbles built on top of a Bitcoin standard, but since people can always opt to manage their own Bitcoin accounts the whole system won't turn into a house of cards.
As far as specifically how these institutions will be set up, I don't know, all of the above probably. Whatever is possible on Bitcoin and meets some consumer preferences will be done.
This is a good point but I would argue that any type of "bank" would have the ability to confiscate bitcoin. For example, if the bank possesses one key of a 2 of 2 multisig account then they can just refuse to provide the key to the customer if so coerced by a group or government. If the bank possesses only one key of a 2 of 3 multisig account and the customer possesses 2 keys then the bank only serves as a backup in case of a lost key and doesn't solve the problem of the customer having to be very careful not to get scammed out of their keys and bitcoin.
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Well, banks now can confiscate people's money and almost no one cares, so I don't see why that arrangement wouldn't continue.
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Exactly so why would a lay man switch to Bitcoin as opposed to staying with fiat? You cannot implement methods in Bitcoin that have the same consequences as fiat otherwise you remove any incentive for people to make the move.
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I'm imagining a scenario where fiat has collapsed and major institutions have made the switch to Bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin has many advantages beyond self custody, so there are other reasons this could come about.
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Honestly, I see the collapse of fiat to be extremely unlikely and if it did come about, lead would become the currency of choice if you catch my drift. So that's not something I believe to be a good catalyst for Bitcoin to succeed nor is it something I would wish for.
The other reasons are what I would consider as more likely and why I posed this question to begin with. These "other" reasons need to be compelling enough for the masses to really adopt Bitcoin and I don't think all of these "other" reasons combined will matter if the lay man can lose everything in the blink of an eye due to a simple mistake.
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