898 sats \ 7 replies \ @gmd 28 Mar 2023 \ on: Daily discussion thread
Anyone else think we're rapidly approaching the event horizon for AI advancement, leading to massive deflation and job losses? I find this all very terrifying...
I don't see how we don't end up with some sort of UBI within the next decade which is bullish for Bitcoin... but how will we stay fulfilled when all of the good creative jobs become so trivially displaced?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsK-kfVaEAAXMBr?format=jpg&name=large
I don't think we'll reach event horizon soon. We'll reach 80/20 diminishing returns soon instead.
I find it not terrifying at all because it will create so many more jobs than it destroys.
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What jobs will it create? It will make people more efficient such that 2 workers + AI can now do the job it previously took 10 people to do...
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How is this different to 1990 when computers where about to make everybody jobless who did white collar jobs on paper previously? How is it different to the steam engine making all the mine workers jobless that worked with pickaxes in the 1700s? It isn't.
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Have you been following the rate of progress of these new generative AI techniques? Progress has been exponential in the past year. These things are already better at simple cognitive and creative tasks than 90% of people at 90% of tasks.
The difference is the speed at which these AIs will be able to be deployed across multiple industries vs the relatively slow rate of new job creation.
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Have you been following the rate of progress of these new generative AI techniques?
Yes, of course
These things are already better at simple cognitive and creative tasks than 90% of people at 90% of tasks.
Even better, then it can create even more jobs.
I, as a capitalist, love it when I can do 100 people production output with 10 heads. If I kept current productivity of 10 people with only 1 employee instead, I'd fall behind the competition.
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Does the rate of job creation/change not happen at the rate of technology? I'd suspect some difference, but I'd also suspect technologies like AI would be used to place people in jobs.
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It just doesn't seem like there are that many desirable white collar jobs, which is why so many people fall back to jobs like waiter or uber.
What does a downsized paralegal do if there's even a moderate influx of paralegals in the job hunting market? It seems this will have a similar effect across so many industries, at a minimum will drive down salaries.
Maybe I just lack the imagination to see where the new job creation will come from, and most of the people being displaced will be of average intelligence, making it harder to quickly switch careers.
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