Yeah, obviously... nobody saw this coming:
Polymarket argues that it is a “truth machine,” that the function of prediction markets is to help people to understand and interpret the world by giving quantifiable probabilities of future events. When you are dreaming up a prediction market from scratch, you will tend to focus on the predictive function: People’s aggregate guesses about the future, with money on the line, might better predict the future than other methods. But now prediction markets exist and are a big business, so they are not only in the business of predicting reality: They’re also in the business of changing it.
If you can make money by predicting the future temperature of some sensor, the obvious trivial way to do that is to warm up the sensor. (I mean: Probably illegal! “Readings from the site are important for the safe operation of the airport”! But still.)
Basically, somebody bet on an out-of-the-market temperature reading in Paris, and then went to/sent or paid someone else to go with and fiddle with it... possibly with a hair dryer. my god.
Prediction markets are our life nowPrediction markets are our life now
Elsewhere: “Kalshi is suspending 3 congressional candidates for betting on their own elections.”
Yeah, that I saw coming...
Also a nice story in there about Kalshi vs Polymarket is a bit like Coinbase vs Binance in regard to how they approached regulation and US/non-US domicile.
newsletterhunt: https://newsletterhunt.com/emails/286682dryer
I am going to create a market on predyx every day so people can bet on what the temperature in my house is. Haha
All this talk on prediction markets has got me thinking about Chesterton fences
howso? Would you like to, uh, tear them down...?
y'know, like maybe these things are historically banned / looked down upon for a reason...
Things are going to be very odd while we wrap our heads around a world with prediction markets in it.