I was thinking about how the current 4th turning/chaos will affect traditional porfilios.
For me, I basically just have bitcoin and a small gold allocation, so I'm not that worried, but i think it's an interesting thought exercise.
We know that during debasement events, asset holders have done alright in the past (as long as the goverment didnt sieze the assets).
But are financial planners factoring this stuff into models (I have no idea who teaches financial planners to become financial planners), are they still recommending the status quo, which I believe is a mix of things?
I would imagine bitcoin, gold (and maybe other commodities) would do just fine, maybe some AI stocks or something (logic being, even if there is a currency collapse, Google will still be around etc).
What do you guys think?
I think it's a little too late to use this framing tbh. 4th turning talk is everywhere in normie land now, and has been for years. No alpha to be had with this framing, it's the consensus trade.
Also just because change is forced over time does not mean it is not controlled, it's less speculation and more trend spotting. Gold and commodities are hot right now because of panic, being late to that trend always takes decades to recover from.
Bitcoin is the obvious new institution, but it's highest CAGR is likely behind us. Not to say it still won't be the highest CAGR available, but there's a few other areas that can outperform.
New institutions = new productive capacity for a new era. Follow the productivity.
Space, Tesla, and Nuke tech are still upcoming institutions in terms of productivity.
I'd get whatever part of the SpaceX IPO reasonable. My spook nuke trust has been doing well as documented in @BlokchainB's threads... BWXT, OKLO notabaly.
Regime change in this "turning" means new defense primes as well, any exposure to Anduril would be worth getting... IPO to-be-determined. Keep an eye out for adjacent companies that will rise with that tide, I'm still on the lookout for these.
GOOGL is the only AI play I think with some juice left in the tank, fully integrated which is proving to be important, not hyped up like most. Largest data warehouse.
Probably some opps in health as the FDA/CDC and big pharma collapse as institutions in this "turning", psychedelic stonks just pumped yesterday because Joe Rogan was shilling DMT at the White House. More asymmetries like that will appear, I've been waiting almost 20y for nanobot surgery tech to appear.
Talk isn't enough for it to be priced in. Institutional money is still in denial. Otherwise Strategy wouldn't have accumulated this much Bitcoin.
Strategy is the vehicle institutions use to get exposed to Bitcoin though, also venture, ETFs, and institutionalized mining. Those don't mark the beginning of early, they end it.
Point remains the 4th turning was half complete before anyone even heard of it, GFC almost 20y ago was probably the kickoff party.
Almost certainly not. Experts are really bad at forecasting sharp changes.
Apart from Bitcoin there's nowhere to really put it. The problem is that there's a lot to learn and most people will learn the hard way.
It all ends the worst possible way. Stocks skyrocket, which in theory should buy people time to realize what's going on, but instead they cash out, then become dead broke shortly thereafter, or they're simply locked out of their account. Then the killing and looting starts.
Everyone who would have recommended Bitcoin had their license taken away. We all have to literally move underground to escape the chaos.
dont know about cafe life, but can 100% see people getting locked out of their accounts if things skyrocket too much
This reminds me of the study by Philip Tetlock, where they found that 'experts' were **only slightly better than random guessing and the more confident ones tended to be worse.
I immediately think of Paul Krugman