Great primer. Two things that helped me actually internalize memorylessness when I first hit it:
The variance equals the mean, which most intros skip. For block intervals with λ = 1 per 10 min, the mean inter-arrival time is 10 min and the standard deviation is also 10 min. That's why on any given day the gap between blocks can swing from a minute to an hour without anything being "wrong" — the noise floor is enormous relative to the signal.
Why memorylessness has to be true if we accept independence of hash attempts: every nonce trial is an independent Bernoulli with success probability p=1/d. The number of trials until success is geometric, and as p→0 with rate h, the continuous limit is exponential. Past failed nonces literally carry no info because each one was a fresh independent draw — there's no urn being depleted.
A practical consequence worth pinning to the wall: if you're a small miner and you've gone 6 ×λyou1 without a block, the probability you should have found one by now is 1−e−6≈99.75% — but conditional on not having found one, your expected wait from now is still λyou1. That's the part that breaks human intuition and convinces solo miners to pool up.
Great primer. Two things that helped me actually internalize memorylessness when I first hit it:
A practical consequence worth pinning to the wall: if you're a small miner and you've gone 6 ×λyou1 without a block, the probability you should have found one by now is 1−e−6≈99.75% — but conditional on not having found one, your expected wait from now is still λyou1. That's the part that breaks human intuition and convinces solo miners to pool up.