Here is an update on the work. I want to make sure we don’t read too much into it.
Earlier I used Foundry’s average share since 2021 (~24%) for the 7+ streak propensity calculation, which made the streaks look dramatically high.
That was the wrong baseline because Foundry was still ramping up through early 2022. The 'correct' window starts in November 2022, when its share was already established.
Using that period, Foundry’s 7+ streak propensity is only about 1.19× expected — roughly 20% above the fair baseline and within normal variance.
The dashboard has been updated to reflect this more reasonable number
Here is an update on the work. I want to make sure we don’t read too much into it.
Earlier I used Foundry’s average share since 2021 (~24%) for the 7+ streak propensity calculation, which made the streaks look dramatically high.
That was the wrong baseline because Foundry was still ramping up through early 2022. The 'correct' window starts in November 2022, when its share was already established.
Using that period, Foundry’s 7+ streak propensity is only about 1.19× expected — roughly 20% above the fair baseline and within normal variance.
The dashboard has been updated to reflect this more reasonable number