> we can't predict energy prices in sats. So far the trend has been always down but it will top out eventually.

Yet here you are predicting it won't change enough despite all existing evidence indicating that it has, plus a hefty margin.

> Once the market figures the fees are never coming, it might not wait 16 years to watch it play out.

Then let's count ourselves lucky that "the market" has been too stupid to have figured that guaranteed outcome yet.

we can't predict energy prices in sats. So far the trend has been always down but it will top out eventually. Even with 1mm usd / bitcoin that is less than 20x current price and that is erased in 4 halvings, 16 years. 

The sustainable future is about transaction fees. not block subsidy.  

Once the market figures the fees are never coming, it might not wait 16 years to watch it play out.

standardcrypto

If this continues for a few more halvings eventually miners will be making 1/200th of what they currently make in sats and the purchasing power of bitcoin can grow a lot but it can't grow to infinity.

"A few more" as in: 8 halvings. Or approximately 32 years.

You are insinuating that energy prices (in sats) will not reduce in tandem or more with block rewards over time.

I'm having a lot of trouble following your math when comparing it to the past developments. Care to expand?

bitcoin

Does BIP 360 (quantum upgrade) also fix bitcoin's security budget?

> If this continues for a few more halvings eventually miners will be making 1/200th of what they currently make in sats and the purchasing power of bitcoin can grow a lot but it can't grow to infinity.

"A few more" as in: 8 halvings. Or approximately 32 years.

You are insinuating that energy prices (in sats) will not reduce in tandem or more with block rewards over time.
I'm having a lot of trouble following your math when comparing it to the past developments. Care to expand?