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- As long as you don't have nukes, the US will feel free to do whatever it wants to you.
It blows my mind how something so obvious seems to be lost of most people. Especially when you consider how many of them value personal firepower. If anything, a post war Iran will be more incentivized to pursue nukes.
He makes a ton of good points. I think his conclusions are not as probable as he paints them. He's not a humble man and so I'm not surprised. But also, neither are the regime of either country. I'd be shocked if there aren't many inside the military leadership that have come to many of the same conclusions now.
I don't think the US is weak. I do think the US is arrogant. I do think the US has been in this kind of situation before. When a state is outgunned by the US they look for blind spots. That is what we are seeing. Evolution of modern warfare. I do think the US population is not invested in this war and the Iranian leadership knows it. It is funny how he goes back and forth in this post suggesting Israeli political influence runs the US but then suggesting Trump is just easily manipulated.
I'm not in the "the Jews" run the US government camp. But for over a decade I have be aware of the strong influence of the Likud party and Zionism. Saying they "run" the state is fun to say. Its "based" I guess. But I think like most takes that seem based, its very flawed. There are individuals in many of levels of the state that I think are controlled by some sort of Zionist group. Just as there are people controlled by many special interest groups. But, not all are. But it doesn't take all of them. It takes a few key people influencing others.
And really, once you see that this is easily shown. I don't care that much about the details. Its pretty obvious that the political party in power in Israel today is manipulating the US regime. When people dumb this down to "the Jews" or even "Israel" runs America a massive number of people just write you off as stupid. Because... it sounds absurd on MANY levels. Especially if they do not understand the history of Zionism, how US politics actually works, and the history of Netanyahu.
Even in Israel, Netanyahu is not some god politically. I think the guy is just about one of the most evil leaders alive today based on what i know about him. The pattern I see repeating over and over again is bravado replacing logic, reason, and honest dialog. I'm unmoved by how "based" someone appears. When I was in my 20s I had this same sort of bravado too... and you know what. I was an idiot.
This turned into a rant but I'm getting old and tired of really bad rhetorical games by immature lazy people who appear to have never actually convinced someone of their position face to face. Its all done for the audience. Its all preaching to the choir. And all sides seem to have given into this on many topics.
If people hate Saif, good for them I guess. If he's "anti-American" I guess that's bad. I mean... he's not an American so... whatever. There are some lessons in this article.
I find it to be a ridiculous take. I'm not a fan of the war, but I don't see in any way how it makes the US look weak. Stupid, maybe, but not weak. Any defeat of the US would come entirely from internal politics, not anything Iran forced militarily. It actually makes Iran look like a paper tiger, and closer to a terrorist organization than a sovereign nation, because the only way it had to defend itself is to threaten civilians.
That being said, it does show the world three things:
I don't think any of those things are good, so I don't think the war was a smart move.