Fantastic, SN-type of article... we're all degenerate gamblers over here, amirite @mega_dreamer!

I mean, if life gives you lemons and there are clueless idiots out there willing to think impossible things may happen... why not take their money?!

37-yo tax economist bet $342,195.63 on Musk's DOGE plan failing.37-yo tax economist bet $342,195.63 on Musk's DOGE plan failing.

From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce—which he did—he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending.

The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does.

"The forces driving spending ever upward—inflation, an aging population, healthcare costs and interest payments—can’t change quickly.""The forces driving spending ever upward—inflation, an aging population, healthcare costs and interest payments—can’t change quickly."

...nothing stops, uuuh, this...

Crucially, he’s been around long enough to see politicians’ promises collide into reality and to know basic federal-budget math.

Before he committed fully, Cole bounced his thesis off others in Washington’s fiscal-policy community, including Jessica Riedl, a former Senate Republican aide whom he credited for flagging the prediction market to him. She was convinced Cole would win.
“It should have been completely obvious to anyone who knows anything about the government, the budget and public administration,” she said.
Riedl, wary of prediction markets, didn’t put in any of her own money.
“I would have been nervous about liquidity, administrative loopholes, legality, making sure that I got paid,” she said.

I am, too, which is why I stay away from keeping very much funds on Predyx at any one time... my investments there top six-figures (... in sats!) but usually way less. Den is having fun staying poor.

“Diversification is, like, the right thing to do on average,” Cole said, “but if you can outperform, then you have to start thinking.”“Diversification is, like, the right thing to do on average,” Cole said, “but if you can outperform, then you have to start thinking.”

https://archive.md/VOGne