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For context, historical oil shocks were much smaller relative to global supply.
1973 oil embargo → ~8% supply disruption1978 Iranian revolution → ~9%1980 Iran–Iraq war → ~7%1990 Gulf War → ~7%2022 Ukraine shock → ~2%
The scenario markets are suddenly pricing now is closer to ~19% of global supply.
That’s roughly double the scale of the 1973 oil crisis.
If traders even partially believe that risk, a large repricing in crude makes sense.
For context, historical oil shocks were much smaller relative to global supply.
1973 oil embargo → ~8% supply disruption
1978 Iranian revolution → ~9%
1980 Iran–Iraq war → ~7%
1990 Gulf War → ~7%
2022 Ukraine shock → ~2%
The scenario markets are suddenly pricing now is closer to ~19% of global supply.
That’s roughly double the scale of the 1973 oil crisis.
If traders even partially believe that risk, a large repricing in crude makes sense.