We added prediction markets to Lightning Faucet where you can bet sats on real outcomes.

First market type: daily BTC price predictions.

How it works:

Every day a new market opens: "Will BTC close at or above $X by 23:59 UTC?" You bet YES or NO with sats. All bets go into a shared pool. When the market resolves, the winning side splits the entire pool proportionally (minus a 3% rake).

This is parimutuel betting, same model as horse racing. The odds shift in real time as more sats come in on each side. If you bet early on the underdog and turn out to be right, you get a bigger share.

Why Lightning makes this work:

Traditional prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) require KYC, bank accounts, and minimum deposits. We just need a Lightning wallet. Deposit sats, place your bet, get paid out instantly when the market resolves. No custody delays, no withdrawal processing.

What's next:

BTC daily markets are just the start. We're adding sports markets and plan to expand to other event types. The parimutuel model works for anything with a binary outcome.

Anti-sniping protection:

To keep things fair, max bet size tapers as the market approaches close. In the final minute, only minimum bets are allowed. This prevents whales from swinging odds at the last second.

Try it: https://lightningfaucet.com/prediction-markets/

Would love feedback from the SN crowd:

• What markets would you want to bet on?
• Is 3% rake reasonable?
• Would you use this if we added sports?