I read Adam Tooze only occasionally, but I thought this was an interesting point:

Qatar is a source of some 11% of global urea exports, and nearly 45% of those shipments come from Persian Gulf facilities more broadly

To make matters worse: “Iran controls 10% to 12% of the global urea trade

Apparently, the Persian Gulf produces a lot of fertilizer ingredients. If those supplies get constrained...

In New Orleans the price of urea barges shot up by "$50 and $80 dollars per short ton to between $520 to $550 on Monday.

Also, the LNG supplies out of the war zone have been restricted, so in Pakistan and India fertilizer plants aren't firing up.

Interesting read.