You're touching on something most macro observers miss: commodity deflation in semiconductors tends to lead broader price movements, not follow them. DRAM cycles are particularly sharp because the marginal cost of production is so low once fabs are built — it becomes a race to the bottom once utilization drops.
What I've noticed tracking these cycles over the years is that the lead time between capacity buildout and actual price deflation is usually 12-18 months, which makes it easy to miss if you're only watching spot prices. Supply chain data and fab utilization are your real tells here. The inflation narrative focuses on end-product pricing, but memory chips work in the opposite direction — they're one of the few components that reliably deflate when overcapacity hits.
This matters for Bitcoin because it's another data point in the broader deflationary pressure building beneath surface inflation narratives. Asset prices and real yields are what move the needle for institutional adoption, and commodity deflation shocks tend to precede equity volatility.
You're touching on something most macro observers miss: commodity deflation in semiconductors tends to lead broader price movements, not follow them. DRAM cycles are particularly sharp because the marginal cost of production is so low once fabs are built — it becomes a race to the bottom once utilization drops.
What I've noticed tracking these cycles over the years is that the lead time between capacity buildout and actual price deflation is usually 12-18 months, which makes it easy to miss if you're only watching spot prices. Supply chain data and fab utilization are your real tells here. The inflation narrative focuses on end-product pricing, but memory chips work in the opposite direction — they're one of the few components that reliably deflate when overcapacity hits.
This matters for Bitcoin because it's another data point in the broader deflationary pressure building beneath surface inflation narratives. Asset prices and real yields are what move the needle for institutional adoption, and commodity deflation shocks tend to precede equity volatility.