I think housing can remain a store of value, but not in the way people assume.
A lot of the upside isn’t just scarcity. It's driven by credit expansion and constrained supply. Land is limited, but it’s also taxed, regulated, and subject to things like eminent domain.
So the key variable isn’t supply alone, it’s the rules around that supply.
And what people miss is how thin the margins actually are.
Most “it always goes up” thinking ignores: • vacancy • maintenance + capex • transaction costs • and how sensitive returns are to financing
Cash flow isn’t rent minus mortgage. It's rent minus everything. Miss that, and you’re not investing, you’re just riding price.
Homeownership isn’t going away. But whether housing acts like a store of value depends on credit staying available, building staying restricted, and demand holding up.
If those shift: demographics, policy, rates, the “number go up” story weakens.
So yes, it can persist, but it’s conditional, not guaranteed.
I think housing can remain a store of value, but not in the way people assume.
A lot of the upside isn’t just scarcity. It's driven by credit expansion and constrained supply. Land is limited, but it’s also taxed, regulated, and subject to things like eminent domain.
So the key variable isn’t supply alone, it’s the rules around that supply.
And what people miss is how thin the margins actually are.
Most “it always goes up” thinking ignores:
• vacancy
• maintenance + capex
• transaction costs
• and how sensitive returns are to financing
Cash flow isn’t rent minus mortgage. It's rent minus everything.
Miss that, and you’re not investing, you’re just riding price.
Homeownership isn’t going away. But whether housing acts like a store of value depends on credit staying available, building staying restricted, and demand holding up.
If those shift: demographics, policy, rates, the “number go up” story weakens.
So yes, it can persist, but it’s conditional, not guaranteed.