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So yes if the AI gets cut off from the cutting edge data sets it is going to degrade. If the AI isnt able to be trained on the highest quality data for specific tasks like what the DOE and DOD wanted to use it for then yes it will not be as high of a quality. The reason Claude works so well is because of the data. With the US Government now opening up these data bases to companies they have the ability to dramatically improve their models. If Anthropic doesnt get access they will fall behind.

The DOE data is entirely different than regular run of the mill scraped from the internet data. Our adversaries have not gotten ahead of us our National Labs continue to produce state of the art cutting edge experiments that no one else has the resources to be able to. China is trying to catch up in certain areas but we still maintain leads in fusion, fission, space, quantum, etc.