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The article says this is no longer just retirees or nomads. It's broadened to families and “ordinary people,” with many treating it as a real, longer-term relocation, not a temporary experiment.
Yes, that's what they write. I would still test the data to support that statement. Many folks are returning due to finding out the grass is not greener after a year or so.
You’re testing the right thing, but the article isn’t making a “who sticks vs who returns” claim. The signal it’s pointing to is different: this has moved from fringe behavior to broad-based outflow. It explicitly says the profile has widened from “super-adventurous” to ordinary people, including families with kids, students, and small-business owners, not just retirees or nomads. So the point isn’t whether some come back (they will), it’s that more Americans across more segments are choosing to leave at all, and in enough numbers to show up as a macro shift.
That's where I see the fudge. There's still a considerable fallout of people who go into the broad-based category that really are just floaters versus permanent stays. The Nomad Visa provided by a number of European countries and similar made that easy to do on a practical travel level. How many are sticking to it and staying only gets counted over time well past the six month or 1 year visa window before renewal or having to commit to residency rules. A lot of them have kids or went with job flexibility as couples, so it's very mixed data and easy to make broad assumptions that don't hold up on tighter review.
The trend in the news is based on a Federal Register release of 1000+ people losing their citizenship. When you follow the article links to their source, that's the primary basis. That's nothing compared to the 4 million plus people living overseas and hardly a metric anyone from an audit perspective would consider material. But it's newsworthy because the number is far bigger than the previous Register release of citizenship loss. Again, it's a bit like saying, we saw a 200% increase! Well in what? We went up by 2 units from 1 for a total of 3. But you still missed 97. Um, why does that matter again?
Nomad visas may enable it, but the shift is who’s leaving at all, not who ultimately stays.
I suspect most are either retirees or individuals with the ability be nomadic. I would test the data for how many stay abroad or on one place out of country longer than two years, which would be the real test of a full relocation. Many who have gone to Spain, for example, have found the taxes and bureaucracy to be even crazier and moved back, especially since the Nomad Visa is getting phased out post-Covid. Retirees, on the other hand, are looking to make their dollar go farther and have the ability to live elsewhere being on a pension or retirement account withdrawal schedule. They don't have to worry about reporting to the office anymore. Interestly, many still consult and make money elsewhere.