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This is fair and believable, but then why isn't the raw wage premium compressing in other countries?
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Good question. I don't know enough about what's going on in the UK to offer anything intelligent. But the same question could fairly be asked of story 1 and story 2, as well.
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Yup, that's what I mostly learned from this article. Not sure how that changes the stories
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I'm more partial to story 3:
University educates the workforce, and imparts new and better skills making them able to earn higher wages later on.
However, not everyone has the academic preparation, personality, or ability to acquire or make use of those skills. This is not a criticism of those people, only an acknowledgement of diverse human abilities and interests.
Because of this, shoving more peeps through 4-5 years of university forces the system to lower standards, thereby diluting their skill acquisition mission. It also forces the university system to create useless majors in order to fit the influx of new students who shouldn't actually be going to university.