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He has a relatively good track record for predicting Bitcoin, crypto, macro and geopolitical trends and events by following global money flows instead of relying on just news, narratives or ideologies.

Some of these have been:

  1. Wall Street capture of Bitcoin through ETFs, custody and lending services while promoting the importance of self-custody.
  2. Foresight on the financial industrial complex dominance and dollar decline. Rising of a multipolar world order. Managing this transition with stablecoins.
  3. Critique of altcoins and crypto tokens.

Where do you see lunacy or conspiracy theories?

The few times I've listened to him he starts out by explaining what an OG he is, how rich he's become from Bitcoin, all the companies he's invested in, drops his "proof of weapons" zinger and then just devolves from there into calling everything a psyop. He's like the Ray Kurzweil of Bitcoin, just make up a billion things, a couple stick and everyone thinks your genius.

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He might not “always” be right so I should reframe my original phrasing to “often a few steps ahead”.

Still, Simon is an interesting character to listen to because his OG Bitcoin wealth enables him not to be beholden to investors and VCs etc. so he seems a bit like an independent outsider thinker.

Still, we shouldn’t raise anybody to the status of prophet and keep verifying things ourselves.

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