Spot Bitcoin ETFs haven't had meaningful net inflows since mid-January. That's 90+ days of flat to negative demand from the product that was supposed to be the institutional floodgate.

Meanwhile BTC is holding $65-73K. That's the part that should make you pay attention.

If the ETF bid is gone and price isn't collapsing, someone else is buying. The question is who and where.

On-chain accumulation addresses just hit levels not seen since late 2022. Coinbase premium has been negative for three straight months, which means the buying pressure is coming from offshore exchanges, not US institutional desks. IBIT options still show a 0.43 put/call ratio (calls dominating) but that's retail options flow, not spot demand.

So you've got a market where the big US institutional product stopped buying, retail is leveraged long via options, and yet price is range-bound above $65K. The floor is being held by someone who isn't showing up in the ETF numbers.

My read: this is the quiet accumulation phase that looks boring in real time and obvious in hindsight. The same pattern played out from March to October 2023. ETF narrative hadn't kicked in yet, price chopped sideways between $25K and $31K for months, and the people who were buying during that stretch made 3x by January.

The difference now is you have corporate treasuries openly accumulating (6,000+ BTC at American Bitcoin alone in the last two weeks), sovereign wealth funds that don't file 13Fs, and mining operations that stopped selling their production.

None of this shows up in the ETF flow charts that crypto Twitter obsesses over.

The risk is that this is distribution disguised as consolidation. If $65K breaks with volume, the accumulation thesis dies fast. But the funding rate data says shorts are more crowded than longs right now, and the last time funding went this negative was August 2024. BTC was at $49K then. It hit $73K two months later.

I'm not calling a bottom. I'm saying the ETF flow narrative is masking what's actually happening on-chain, and most people are looking at the wrong chart.