The dust is settling on the latest naval blockade drama, but the charts are still bleeding.
It’s now obvious that the market completely misjudged the situation. When the US moved to surround Iran, the fear of a total regional collapse was real—dragging BTC down to $60,000. The assumption was that pressure would lead to a quick capitulation. It didn't.
Instead, the Iranian stance proved that the cost of a full-scale conflict is far higher than the administration’s appetite for risk. The sudden "pivot" to negotiations wasn't a sudden change of heart; it was a realization that a blockade is a double-edged sword that could tank the global economy before it ever breaks the target's resolve.
The $10k bounce back to $70,000 was the market’s sigh of relief, but the current downward drift tells me the trust hasn't returned. We are essentially trading in a "Geopolitical Purgatory." Every time a politician tries to look tough for the cameras, the liquidity in our market vanishes.
I’m moving my focus away from the headlines. If this cycle has taught us anything, it’s that the "resistance" on the ground and the "resistance" on the 1-day candle are more connected than we think.
Are you still trying to time these political swings, or have you accepted that we’re in a sideways chop until the election noise clears?