Decades ago, the dog used to wag the tail, meaning the health of the economy had a big affect on the stock market. Now that the stock market is so large (200% of GDP), the tail wags the dog, meaning a weak stock market can materially impact the health of the economy. This is because nearly 90% of stocks are held by the top 10% of society, and that same 10% of society performs nearly 50% of all consumer spending. When their portfolios aren’t doing well, they tend to tighten their spending a bit. That affects business profits, which then restrain hiring, completing the circle.
Didn't fact check but that seems too incredible.
Also:
The United States added about $3.5 trillion in GDP over the past two years, or just under $1.8 trillion per year. If that pace continues for the next two years, and the Fed maintains their current ~20% ratio of their balance sheet to GDP growth, that’s $360 billion per year in balance sheet growth.
As previously discussed, the Fed projects sub-$220 billion to $375+ billion in balance sheet increases this year, which is in line with those estimates. Even if we double that top end to $750 billion, it’s not all that big in the grand scheme of the size of the system today.
... and Booking(!). That surprised me.
Also, this was pretty interesting an observation
Didn't fact check but that seems too incredible.
Also:
Fed slow print now might just be a nothingburger