True, true... And maybe the market is just underdeveloped now but in the future people in e.g. Hurricane areas will check them the same as they check weather forecast (or weather forecast will take predictions into account etc etc)

denlillaapan

I suppose prediction market supporters would argue that even if the gambling is zero sum, the market itself has positive potential externalities. (The price in the market reflects accurate probabilities which even non-market-participants can utilize to make better decisions)