Doing my bit to keep cover tradfi bitcoin opinions... it's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it (not?).

the shills and shamans of bitcoinland have been getting away with it too. Sure, sure, bitcoin might have had a couple of dozen substantial crashes, a few hundred crypto companies might have gone bust, untold numbers of people might have lost their life savings, but every time bitcoin falls, it has always bounced back. Those who can afford it manage to cling on (it’s the people who can’t who are wiped out), and the cognitive muscle memory they acquire on each rebound leads them to believe their hallowed crypto coin is going to live forever. 

kind of ridiculous and just downstream from the mental model you're operating:

• if bitcoin always deluded speculative unsubstantiated fervor, then any observed crash is informing that view
• if bitcoin is the only way out from a fucked-up fiat and desperate fiscal situation, then any observed crash is just good value, stack harder

Both suffer from confirmation bias. If reality is instead non-dogmatic and we must take new information into account, both views are unacceptable. Bitcoin might die—and unreasonably often it reminds us of that ability—like every other digital-money attempt; or central banks and politicians might once more embrace golden fetters (Saif's story for the biggest threat to bitcoin #1428488); or something else happens.

"Bitcoiners’ excessive confidence — or more precisely the confidence they project, crucial in keeping the whole scheme going — has always been unwarranted, irresponsible and foolhardy.""Bitcoiners’ excessive confidence — or more precisely the confidence they project, crucial in keeping the whole scheme going — has always been unwarranted, irresponsible and foolhardy."

Ever since its creation, bitcoin has been on a journey that will end, splattered on the ground.

Both of these statements are kind of too harshly and too aggressively put. We've probably never been as bad off, relatively speaking (expectations <-> reality; fundamentals <-> market price) which should be a good indication for those of us with "excessive [projected] confidence" to take a chill pill. But Jemima screaming like this isn't getting her any points either.

The desperation and “cope”, as a bro might say — it implies someone is delusional and struggling to accept a painful truth — are palpable.

Yes, that was really strange for the noisiest voice in Bitcoin to open his behemoth's earnings call with (#1427437)

and here she's entirely freaking right:

in his first 200 days in office, Trump’s presence in the White House has not been able to hold back the tide of selling. If bitcoin can’t thrive in this environment, when can it?

(add gold, widespread education, easy access etc, etc)

Conclusion:

But the belief is starting to ebb. This week has shown us that the supply of “greater fools” that bitcoin relies on is drying up. The fairy tales that have been keeping crypto afloat are turning out to be just that. People are beginning to wake up to the fact that there is no floor in the value of something based on nothing more than thin air.

cheap shot: so you think its fundamental value is $2,300? neat neat, OK.

archive: https://archive.md/jotdm