“Our dollar is getting too strong,” President Trump said at the beginning of his first term, “and partially that’s my fault, because people have confidence in me.” Well, his past few weeks of erratic leadership — from Greenland to Minneapolis to the criminal investigation of the Federal Reserve chair — have apparently done a great deal to sap that confidence. Last week the U.S. dollar slid to a four-year low. It has risen a little since then, but it’s still close to multiyear lows. That could be good for the U.S. economy, though probably not in the way Mr. Trump wants.
With most economic variables, the question of which direction to root for is relatively straightforward. I cheer when I see unemployment and poverty going down, just as I get excited when per capita income or the stock market goes up.
Exchange rates are different. While a strong dollar sounds preferable to a weak dollar, strength is not inherently better — and can easily be worse.
A strong dollar benefits consumers by allowing a given amount of U.S. currency to be converted into more foreign currency. For Americans traveling abroad, the benefit is obvious: They get more bang for their buck. They can suddenly afford more meals, hotel stays or souvenirs than they otherwise could. American businesses, too, feel a benefit: They can spend less to buy imported products or materials and, over time, usually pass those savings on to consumers at home.
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