I was never to optimistic about the Iran talks when news broke of them the last couple of days. This is something that we have been there and done that and to expect some sort of sudden breakthrough or agreement. After all if Iran agreed to the terms that the US wanted it would make the Regime look extremely weak.

Now I never imagined what has happened today. Earlier today 6 Iranian gunboats armed with 50 cals approached an American-flagged oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz that was bound for the Naval Support Activity Bahrain. They ordered the tanker to halt and prepare to be boarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) instead the tanker sped up and the gun boats did not follow. In itself this is a pretty significant red flag and something that the US military and Admin would not take kindly to but Iran it turns out was not done.

They followed this up with demanding a venue and format change for the talks scheduled to happen Friday. Initially the talks were set to happen in Istanbul, Turkey now Iran wants to move them to Muscat, Oman. The format that was agreed to by both parties has now also been thrown up in the air as the foreign ministers from Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia had been invited to participate in the talks but now Iran wants bilateral talks that are only going to be over its nuclear program. Iran no longer wants the talks to concern its ballistic missile build up or its proxy forces and that is something that the Admin is not going to shy away from because of the importance of it.

Then if the first two things were not enough a Iranian Shahed-139 surveillance drone was shot down by a F-35C Lightening II after it refused to change course and continued to fly straight at the USS Abraham Lincoln. Again this is an incident that in itself could tank talks and now you have not just this but two other events that are starting to show that Iran appears to be trying to buy itself more time and put off any sort of military strike. US forces (CENTCOM) has come out and stated "Continued Iranian harassment and threats in international water and airspace will not be tolerated" and I think the downing of the drone was the easiest way to back that up without killing anyone.