We’ve spent weeks eyeing the six-figure dream, but the market just handed us a reality check. Dropping from $90k to sub-$80k in a matter of days is brutal, but if you’ve been through a couple of cycles, this feels like a classic "sell the news" and macro-pivot combo.
The Elephant in the Room: The Fed.
The news of Kevin Warsh being picked for the Fed Chair seems to have sent the DXY (Dollar Index) into a rally. Whenever the dollar flexes, BTC usually takes a breather. Combine that with the massive liquidations we just saw ($1.8B+ wiped in days), and you have the perfect recipe for a local bottom hunt.
Technicals vs. Sentiment:
Oversold Territory: RSI is currently hovering around 30. Historically, whenever we dip below 80k while being this oversold, it's a massive "buy the blood" zone for long-term holders.
Support Levels: We’re fighting to hold the $78,500 - $79,000 range. If this holds, it’s a textbook retest of previous resistance-turned-support. If it fails, we might see a quick wick down to $75k before any real bounce.
My Take: The "Tariff talk" and the new Fed leadership are creating short-term noise. But looking at the ETF outflows, it feels like institutional profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift. I’m personally not selling a single sat here; in fact, this is where I start scaling back in.
Are we looking at a recovery back to $90k by late February, or do you think the "bear market" calls are actually justified this time?
I'm curious to hear from the OGs here. Are you catching this falling knife or waiting for $75k?
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We already wicked down to 75k today.
We may have to hit $69k for the memes and debunk some MSTR fud, again.
Hopefully 75k was and will remain a scam wick... could be many many months before liquidity starts circulating even once its unleashed... Its a new regime of liquidity now and not the fiscal stimmies Bitcoin has known all its life.
Even if today marked the bottom that doesn't mean a recovery will be quick, leveraged treasuries will get crushed by theta and have to start liquidating even if we only trade sideways for a long time. It's very possible that it takes years for the market to grind back over 100 in the new regime.
There's also the hangover of ETH and other shitcoin treasuries/ETF's that need to bleed out to zero, and as they do that Bitcoin takes a liquidity draw down along with them. We may not bottom until BMNR goes under.
Only hope is that the SLR changes loosen conditions quickly and household savings starts to rip from the million other policy changes going on. At minimum we need to wait till April for tax refunds and the new SLR rules, conditions could get a lot tighter before then.