Even with short-term profit-taking, oil had its biggest monthly gain since 2022.

The market continues to price in geopolitical risk in the Middle East, focusing on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Signs of possible negotiations marginally alleviate tension, but do not eliminate the premium.

Extreme weather in the US and temporary production cuts add support.

Not surprisingly, options are gaining traction and the implied premium on Brent is already estimated between US$7–10/barrel.