I don't think it's inevitable China will retake Taiwan. The operation in Venezuela will have given them cause for concern with regards to US capabilities, and now China, Russia and Iran no longer have ready access to Venezuelan oil.

You make a good point about refining rare earth minerals, but Tesla just put a lithium refinery in Texas online in 2.5 years so I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that the US can up its game here. That is, if a trade agreement is not reached between the US and China – which it easily could. Neither party wants war after all.

I don't think the US is reacting defensively per se – Venezuela was a very forward move for example – but I appreciate the steps finally being taken to reduce leverage and the potential risk to the US economy from a move on Taiwan. I also disagree the US is leaving the rest of the world to defend itself. Those may be the optics but they're not the reality. And the news about Europe's trade deal with India suggests they have finally realized they need to diversify their supply chain too, however long that will take.

mostly_harmless

Ray Dalio's comments on the beginning of our new civil war

elvismercury

I don't think it's inevitable China will retake Taiwan. The operation in Venezuela will have given them cause for concern with regards to US capabilities, and now China, Russia and Iran no longer have ready access to Venezuelan oil.

You make a good point about refining rare earth minerals, but Tesla just put a lithium refinery in Texas online in 2.5 years so I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that the US can up its game here. That is, if a trade agreement is not reached between the US and China – which it easily could. Neither party wants war after all.

I don't think the US is reacting defensively per se – Venezuela was a very forward move for example – but I appreciate the steps finally being taken to reduce leverage and the potential risk to the US economy from a move on Taiwan. I also disagree the US is leaving the rest of the world to defend itself. Those may be the optics but they're not the reality. And the news about Europe's trade deal with India suggests they have finally realized they need to diversify their supply chain too, however long that will take.
-Tom