Yesterday, I saw this post on X from James O'Beirne:
You ever think that maybe bitcoin didn't have an impressive bull market run because
maybe the underlying technical development doesn't actually merit it anymore?
You ever think that maybe smart money has analysts who more or less understand the technical stuff
and they're looking at the state of the development community and saying
"uh, this doesn't look great."
"Community's totally fragmented. Arguing about CP. Quantum. Covenants conversation dead in the water."
"No one is talking about anything substantive or exciting."
Even if that isn't literally happening, I know that it's true. I remember how things felt circa 2018. How much well-founded hope was in the pipeline: lightning, Taproot/Graftroot/+, improvements to script, scaling, better self-custody.
By that point I'd been around for 5 years.
Maybe this is just my naivety dying a slow death. But maybe it's not.
It's an interesting thought. It may have been in response to this tweet from Pierre Rochard:
The #1 impediment to Bitcoin payments adoption is tax policy, not scaling technology.
Cointelegraph ran a whole article on Rochard's idea, in which they further quote Rochard:
“Here’s a metaphor: the best athlete can win against the worst athlete 100% of the time, if the best athlete plays. It drops to 0% if he doesn’t play and lets the weak athlete win,” Rochard said about BTC’s current lack of use as a method of payment.
The article doesn't really have any analysis in it. It just mentions how there isn't a de minimis tax exemption for bitcoin transactions in the US and points out this means tax law here requires reporting of every transaction for capital gains. They mention the Bitcoin Policy Institute and Lummis and Jack Dorsey -- all the usual names.
This is a classic retail gets bored frustrated and institutions hoover up
You guys can see mstr buying over a Billy a week right
The elites want stable no vol, ffs they are controlling it on the futures market
Btc at a dollar too risky protocol failure government ban
Btc at 90k and 17yrs old safe to assume it will survive, lindy effect id's s is it, excuse the typing finking android keyboard is fucked
Lindy effect greshams law all that stuff means it's a safe bet for institutions and 90k a countcoinry coin is cheap af
We are living in a hodl narrative and no-one will tx with each other until everyone knows that when they spend sats on a good or service, they will recieve sats back for their good and service they provide, theirs law
I used to think I missed the boat trading sorry reading the Bitcoin talk forums in 20190 2010 but actually this is fine because the network is proven and now it's time to shake out the weak
Governments will be watching node counts like a hawk, they will have departments looking at how the adoption rate is going, too fast they have to move, like this they have time to strategise
Neither imo. The biggest thing holding it back is not enough people are interested in it other than for NGU.
I think "bitcoin is the Tor of money" keeps coming to mind as a very plausible hypothesis
My sensation is that the masses do not use tor.
This to me = tech is the problem. It implies that people won't ever be interested in bitcoin for its censorship resistance -- essentially, most people won't ever be bitcoiners -- so then bitcoin needs to be something that they use without knowing it. And this mostly hasn't happened because tech? But then again, maybe it hasn't happened because of taxes...
Exactly, and the masses do not use bitcoin
As with anything, there's a spectrum to this. If people really wanted to use it, they'd manage to figure out the tech. If the tech was easier, maybe some people on the borderline of wanting to use it may finally give it a try.
I wouldn't know as much about the tax situation, but I imagine if you really wanted to use bitcoin, you'd figure out the tax stuff.
But now that I think about it, if the tax burden is really high, that just makes it so that it isn't worth it for businesses to deal with that headache
This is extraordinarily true. The ability of people to do shit when they really really want to do it is extraordinary. The fact that the road to btc adoption has been so gloriously paved, and still it's basically not being used by anyone except for speculation, is telling.
Also, I am enjoying the meta of the last 24 hrs of conversation spanning assorted threads and topics, where we have this tangle of belief, "if people really want to X then they can", etc. Big ideas that keep popping up.
I often think about how insane it is that we use automobiles -- trusting other strangers to not end us with their 2k lbs of metal hurtling in the opposite direction as us at 80mph mere feet to our left...oh, and it's a controlled explosion that powers the whole thing...and there's about a million things you need to keep track of: oil changes, insurance, different juridictions -- and yet they have super wide adoption. "The ability of people to do shit when they really really want to do it is extraordinary." People want to get places.
So, Bitcoin could follow this if it provides something equally compelling. In a way, the thing that bitcoin adoption most needs is heavy handed financial regulations and capital controls. Because then it would shine and people would bend over backwards to learn how to use it.
This seems like a dangerous thing to hope for, but maybe it's the only chance Bitcoin has: we need an incredibly hostile regulatory environment or no one will ever really want to use it.
Mine is sex and drugs -- the ability of people to get sex and drugs, even with the full power of civilization arrayed against them, beggars belief. They will pursue both in the face of death and dismemberment.
One thing that sounds like cope, and that I think both is and is not, is when people say go talk to someone in $COUNTRY who was able to buy a goat / escape political persecution thanks to btc, you privileged asshole!
Every industrialized country seems to be hurtling in that direction, so I guess that's a bitcoiner silver lining.
Ironically then, if Kamala had won and Elizabeth Warren would be in charge, we would be at least at $150k now haha
People can use Bitcoin easier now than they ever could before... they just don't want to.
Why pay in Bitcoin... when I can just pay in dollars with the Credit Card?
Bitcoin may go up, and if it doesn't then "I don't give a shit" "I'll just use the Credit Card" is the attitude I get from many. No bravery and no spirit.
That's what happened.
Bitcoin really needs that smooth tap-and-pay experience. It’s dreadful to deal with the QR codes.. no wonder normies stay away
This.
Not sure about the comparison of course. I think all we can say is that thus far Bitcoin did not fail where every other attempt at solving the decentralized money problem has.
"not dead yet" may be the best attribute we can look for in anything that challenges the state.
I'm not that pessimistic - for once, haha.
I generally feel about this that many people have written Bitcoin's future obituary after (with all due respect) they burned out, all premature and all it does is fuel the shitcoiners wet dreams.
Maybe jamesob needs to leave the bird app and come to SN. Stackers get to read things like #1419471, which actually show that we're not here in vain, yet.
Monero is the Tor of money.
Bitcoin is the clearnet.
Then people decide... which they actually care about it's true.
It's a deeper question than it seems.
Much of btc adoption was based on the belief that it might one day be a MoE, even if it was in no way true in the moment, and barely moving toward being true.
The credible belief was everything, it pulled value from the future to the present just as undeveloped land does - some visionary imagines that it could credibly be highly sought after because of various reasons, and the belief in the future desire for it recursively pulls desire for it to the present. Very Keynesian Beauty Contest.
Hard to say what anyone believes now. Saylor can somehow gin up investment dollars still, so that's something.
It also matters how far out that is. Even if the mean expected timeline just moves from 15 to 20 years for widespread adoption, that has large implications for the current value.
It's also always in comparison to everything else. If bitcoin's expected to 100x over the next 50 years and gold (or whatever) is expected to 2x this year, capital will move towards gold despite widespread agreement with us about bitcoin's future. A lot of stuff has been changing quickly on the global landscape, which presumably is leading people towards other shorter term investments.
Ignorance
ignorance of how bitcoin works or ignorance of the reasons for which bitcoin is needed?
Tends to go hand in hand so I would say both.
The truth is that the 'heart and soul' of Bitcoin... is dying.
Bitcoin has all the technology it needs to become 'daily money' (albeit volatile daily money) and Lightning is 'good enough' right now. Steak n Shake is evidence of this.
The issue isn't the tech, it's the users the "community". Look at night or on the weekends there are relatively few transactions and compared to the entire world... barely any usage to buy things or pay for things despite having Lightning which works pretty well.
The "community" is number-go-up and trading and 'cashin-in-on-the-exchange' the vast majority of "Bitcoiners" care only about "getting rich" "more money" not "better money" and it shows.
NOSTR is mostly NGU bullshit it gets really, really quiet over there when the exchange rate is down: where is the Freedom? Where is the sovereignty? If those things were the focus the exchange rate wouldn't matter that much.
People don't exchange Bitcoin for goods or services although the opportunity now is greater than ever and the world more "PRIMED THAN EVER" to accept BTC.
When Bitcoin fails and the network dies, which it will at this rate, it will have nothing to do with technology -
People just didn't want it. What a shame it will be for Saylor, Stackers and many others who believed in it.
That's just not how Bitcoin cycles play out.
There is a minority who wants it desperately and they drive the price up amongst themselves without permission from the majority.
I said some sappy things a few nights ago in a different thread, but I still stand by them:
The various bitcoin-centric spaces that have sprung up all around the world are evidence that that this (the heart and soul of Bitcoin is dying) isn't true. I can't think of any other technology that has these groups of people meeting up in weird places all over the world to talk about using it, how it changes the world, and what they can build with it.
There are these kind of spaces everywhere: you can find over 200 bitcoin-centric meetups that are active. There are quite a number of places that actually pay for space and can keep the lights on, just for the purpose of getting together about bitcoin.
It may take longer than we thought, or it may end up looking quite different than we thought, but I think the idea of Bitcoin is still pretty strong and the people on the fringes will keep using it. I don't know if that's enough, but it might be.
It'd be great to get de minimis tax, mtl, and msb exemptions.
https://twiiit.com/jamesob/status/2015203582224560527