You’ve got more sellers than buyers right now..about half a million more but what matters isn’t the gap itself. It’s why the gap opened. Buyers have stepped back because the math stopped working and the confidence cracked at the same time.
Housing doesn’t turn on sentiment alone. It turns on monthly payments. And those jumped faster than incomes ever could.
Why Buyers Are Pulling Away
Most buyers are being cautious. At today’s rates, the same house costs dramatically more every month than it did just a few years ago. That changes how people feel about risk. Even if they can technically afford it, they hesitate.
Layer on job uncertainty, slower hiring, and a general sense that the economy is late cycle, and you get hesitation instead of urgency. Nobody wants to be the person who locks in the highest payment right before conditions ease. So buyers are doing the most logical thing and waiting.
Why Sellers Aren’t Rushing Either
Sellers are backing off for a different reason and it’s because they are trapped by their own advantage.
A huge number of homeowners are sitting on ultra low mortgage rates. Selling means giving that up. Even if they get a good price, they’d be stepping into a worse payment somewhere else. That’s a downgrade.
On top of that, many sellers are anchored to peak prices from 2021 and 2022. If the market won’t meet those expectations, they’d rather pause than cut. Housing moves slowly because pride and memory move slowly.
Why Listings Still Exceed Buyers
Some selling isn’t optional. Life events happen. Investors need liquidity. New builds get completed whether demand is there or not. That’s why listings keep showing up even as buyers hesitate.
So you end up with more sellers than buyers not because everyone wants out, but because buyers have the luxury of waiting and sellers often don’t.
My View
Until rates fall, incomes rise, or prices adjust enough to restore conviction, the market just sits there..quiet, thin, and frustrating. That’s what this chart captures. Just a housing market caught between memory and reality, waiting for something to break.