The Core Tension
“Oil recently traded below $60 a barrel, a price where many operators can just barely continue to pump profitably, but starting new wells usually makes little financial sense.”
“Trump believes his plan to exert more control over Venezuela’s oil industry could drive down oil prices to $50 a barrel… Meantime, tariffs have pushed up the cost of materials like chemicals and steel tubes.”
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Permian Basin rigs: DOWN 14% year-over-year
Hotel occupancy: DOWN 5.6%
Restaurant revenue: DOWN 30%
One owner’s take-home pay: DOWN 50%+
The Trade-Off Nobody Talks About
“Dobson’s ideal oil price is $80 a barrel—a figure he believes keeps gasoline prices muted for American consumers, but also keeps the local oil industry humming.”
“We are on a gold mine; we can produce enough oil to supply ourselves.”
The Political Paradox
Trump won 80% of Midland County
“Patterson… said he has no regrets about voting for Trump—he is happy with the direction of the overall U.S. economy and the drop in illegal immigration.”
But:
“We thought he was going to help the economy here in West Texas.”
— Restaurant owner, first-time Trump voter
What “Boom-and-Bust” Actually Looks Like
“Some months it was even slower than Covid.”
“The oil field’s not the oil field anymore.“