Over the last few years there has been several of these stories....statistically it *seems like* these should almost never happen, yet they seem to happen with more frequency than we imagine. 

Is it (a) there are far more mini solo miners than we imagine, or (b) is our mathematical assumptions somehow off?

freetx

Two solo bitcoin miners independently mined blocks this week with each collecting a full block reward worth roughly $300,000, a reminder that a small operator can still get lucky in today’s pool-dominated mining market.

One miner mined a block early Thursday and earned a 3.157 BTC payout including fees, while another solo win earlier in the week produced a similar reward near $295,000, based on public block data and mempool trackers.

bitcoin_Mining

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/01/16/two-solo-bitcoin-miners-hit-rare-usd300-000-jackpots-in-the-same-week

>Two solo bitcoin miners independently mined blocks this week with each collecting a full block reward worth roughly $300,000, a reminder that a small operator can still get lucky in today’s pool-dominated mining market.

>One miner mined a block early Thursday and earned a 3.157 BTC payout including fees, while another solo win earlier in the week produced a similar reward near $295,000, based on public block data and mempool trackers.