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We've been getting more visibility into routing activity by deploying nodes through our Rails product, and the insights are great!
The LNMarkets trade volume is massive, props to that team! That's been a very clear volume indicator, which they've occasionally shared publicly.
Speed Wallet has also been growing tremendously.
Then Square with their 4 million merchant rollout spells a rapid growth trajectory that enables extrapolation.
As a lower bound estimate (different calc methodology), we can look at closed channel volume on. Even that indicator shows over $2B in volume in 2025. It's highly conservative though, because lightning cycles a lot in each channel!
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Can you share more about how you've calculated this $10B+ of annual Lightning payment processing estimate?
How does this number compare to your estimates in previous years?
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