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First of all, no other than the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics itself explains in detail in this report how tariffs negatively impact the U.S. economy:

https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/the-effects-of-tarifff-rates-on-the-u-s-economy-what-the-producer-price-index-tells-us.htm

Just fresh from the oven, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows how the Bureau of Labor Statistics own data confirms the Bureau of Labor Statistic own conclusions on the negative impact of tariffs:

https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/01/recent-slowdown-in-labor-supply-and-demand/

I remember reading the official numbers were a bit off because of the gov shutdown. But you might be right about the hit it took, maybe better to just hold off for some new data.

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