Mass deportations in 2025 did lower U.S. rents, but only by a few dollars, while gutting the very workforce needed to build affordable housing.

Immigration alone doesn’t drive rent inflation, but the 2025 deportation wave exposed how housing markets depend on immigrants both to rent and to build.

What everyone got wrongWhat everyone got wrong

When the second Trump administration began mass deportations in early 2025, many assumed rents would finally drop. They did, barely. National median rent fell just 1.3% by year-end, the first annual dip in over a decade. But that sliver of relief came at enormous cost: construction labor vanished, projects stalled, and long-term housing supply shrank.

The mechanism that matteredThe mechanism that mattered

Immigrants aren’t just tenants. They’re the backbone of the construction trades. Roughly one in four U.S. construction workers was foreign-born before the crackdown. Deporting even a fraction created a double shock:

• Demand shock: 1 million fewer renters means some empty apartments and slight price relief.
• Supply shock: Losing builders and repair crews drives future rents back up.

As economist Mike Konczal put it, even removing a million renters only saves the average tenant $4.40 a month, while choking off the labor that adds new housing.

The regional storyThe regional story

Sun Belt metros like Austin and Phoenix saw rents plunge 5–7% as vacancies hit record highs. But coastal cities like New York and San Francisco, where building is hardest, still saw rents rise. Immigrant-heavy Houston, by contrast, became a case study in hollowing out: ICE raids emptied entire complexes once full of Central American families, leaving “rows of empty units” and stalled construction permits.

The bottom lineThe bottom line

Mass deportations didn’t solve affordability; they exposed America’s dependence on immigrant labor to keep housing livable. You can shrink demand by fear, but you can’t build homes without hands.

If the goal is affordable rent, the lever isn’t who leaves. It’s what gets built.

If population decline gives us temporary rent relief, but labor loss drives prices up again, what’s the real lever policymakers should pull: immigration limits or construction expansion?