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the state breakup will either never happen or be VERY ugly and messy
Yes, but I still think that's the best case scenario.
just a few years or maybe a decade behind
I do see this changing trajectory. Just as a microcosm, many middle America states have reversed course on the public school trans insanity and never went as far as California.
California is now widely seen as a policy failure and as a result it's no longer acting as the object of imitation. This changed a while ago in the Midwest because of how successful Mitch Daniels was in Indiana. The neighboring states (Illinois excepted) have sought to imitate, or at least pay lip service, to that approach.
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Outsiders do not really understand California has always had massive conflicting interest groups. Its always been this way. These long term divisions have little to do with right/left politics but today those divisions play in as well. Water is the big and long lived divide. SoCal, CenCal, and the Bay Area all conflict over water rights.
Cultural differences also play in. The middle of the state is Ag focused and more conservative. Northern California is far more rural and is hard to pin down politically. But these two regions are steamrolled and have been for decades by SoCal and the Bay Area regions. There are conflict between LA and SF. Between LA and the Central coast.
The state is too big and diverse even if they all voted the same in national elections. Depending on where you live in SoCal you might be OK though. I have seen maps that would divide the state including Orange county and the land east of it in with Bakersfield and Fresno.
Sadly, I think the state breakup will either never happen or be VERY ugly and messy. Most people have never thought deeply or even close to deep about this stuff. You don't have to be an anarchist or libertarian to see it. The left runs this state and has for decades and I don't see that changing. Where I'm different is that I don't see other places going the opposite way. I see them as just a few years or maybe a decade behind it. History shows this to be true. Unless the right realizes that most institutions are fully owned by those that hate them it will not shift in a meaningful way. Many institutions need to be torn down before other states can actually alter their direction. They will just continue to follow California.