Remember, all miners have 2 weeks to upgrade once lock-in occurs, before their blocks will start being orphaned by the network.

"at 55% of miners, there are still a large chunk of miners who will be mining non-BIP-110 blocks"

This is a very dubious claim. Why would any miner waste money like this?

dathon_ohm

Isn't it the case that waiting to activate until you see 95% of miners signalling reduces the likelihood of lengthy reorgs?

at 55% of miners, there are still a large chunk of miners who will be mining non-BIP-110 blocks. the 55% will have to reorg out these blocks every time they occur. This seems like it would be a pretty messy process and could go on for quite some time.

I would expect such a situation to result in very few people making any transactions at all, because confirmation becomes highly unreliable.

bitcoin

Dathon Ohm releases BIP 110 release candidate 2

Scoresby

Isn't it the case that waiting to activate until you see 95% of miners signalling reduces the likelihood of lengthy reorgs? 

at 55% of miners, there are still a large chunk of miners who will be mining non-BIP-110 blocks. the 55% will have to reorg out these blocks every time they occur. This seems like it would be a pretty messy process and could go on for quite some time. 

I would expect such a situation to result in very few people making any transactions at all, because confirmation becomes highly unreliable.