tl;dr - somebody made a large bet in a polymarket market about whether Maduro would be ousted in 2025...two hours before the US ousted Maduro, and maybe that somebody was connected to Trump. If you're an important figure and there's a market that concerns you, you probably ought to have alerts for sudden moves...tl;dr - somebody made a large bet in a polymarket market about whether Maduro would be ousted in 2025...two hours before the US ousted Maduro, and maybe that somebody was connected to Trump. If you're an important figure and there's a market that concerns you, you probably ought to have alerts for sudden moves...
Insider who made $400,000 on Maduro's capture at Polymarket – could turn out to be someone connected to Steven Charles Witkoff (WLFI Co-Founder)
The entire CT was talking yesterday about an insider who placed around $32k just a few hours before the well–known events in Venezuela, earning a total of $400,000.
Insider's account:
https://polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E690c621eD21De08Cb559e9524Cdb8eD9-1766730765984?via=10gwei
The market where he won the $400k:
https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-out-in-2025/maduro-out-by-january-31-2026-318?via=10gwei
I decided to dig into the chain in search of any clues.
Found 2 wallets that were funding the @Polymarket account:
- 0x9c7fca7d24162f0dd09d853e999c3f954ed0f8d1 (https://relay.link/transaction/0xcf61f94e8d17b9f94ff0c159302e87249bf1a3634dc358ec6909df87e245c739)
- 2i7HJJTs8Ht25H8fSjJJSsgGp2HE3umxMrcEa1Cq6hV3 (https://relay.link/transaction/0xcda6c4e5cb560e46af2820636af86dd1b07001243c2edb4572a34e6e6f3120d9)
Both accounts have no transactions other than funding from the Coinbase exchange and the subsequent deposit to Polymarket.
I noticed that the second wallet (2i7HJJ) was funded from Coinbase with 252.39 SOL on January 1st at 11:53 PM UTC.
I decided to check all deposits to Coinbase within a day before the insider's wallet withdrawal and found one match with 99% accuracy.
BCcTrxcowNeUqhr4yPtAMy5PhhQ5eD8hsjHYmMS8FaV8 (STVLU.SOL) – from this wallet there was a deposit to Coinbase through a deposit address of 252.91 SOL on January 1st at 00:48 AM UTC, meaning approximately 23 hours before the withdrawal to the insider's wallet.
I noticed that this wallet had several registered ENS domains: STVLU.SOL and StCharles.SOL
And the first funder – ES6SiK66UZcsPevTgfVtKtay4o1vWUepeVvb5kfWnJXF with ENS Solhundred.sol
Moving to the latter, we see transactions of $11 million with someone with ENS Stevencharles.sol (22Tqm7fBbrGb5XmT9UkcZhSPjT1Q1DMBatacpmsJGkUz)
Steven Charles – or Steven Charles Witkoff(?), one of the co–founders of World Liberty Finance (WLFI), meaning a person who potentially had access to insider information.
All 3 wallets (STVLU.sol, Solhundred.sol, StevenCharles.sol) – are connected by the same deposit addresses on the Coinbase exchange.
From the insider account on Polymarket, the winnings of approximately $440k were withdrawn to Coinbase 18 hours ago.
14 hours ago, Fartcoin tokens worth $170k were withdrawn from Coinbase to the STVLU.sol (stcharles.sol) wallet.
Another coincidence? Or was part of the profits from insider trading on Polymarket used to buy Fartcoin?
In total, we have several interesting coincidences:
- The amount of the deposit to Coinbase and the amount withdrawn to the insider's wallet for the deposit to Polymarket match with 99% accuracy with a 23–hour difference.
- The ENS(SNS) StevenCharles.sol and StCharles.sol on these wallets match with Steven Charles Witkoff. (Together with the first point, such a coincidence looks strange, doesn't it?)
- The time interval between the withdrawal of winnings from Polymarket to Coinbase and the receipt of Fartcoin to the stvlu.sol wallet is 3–4 hours.
Your take?
Are these just coincidences, or is it really someone connected to Steven Witkoff using insider information to trade on Polymarket?
The Irony
These politicians...I mean traders are flocking to modern prediction markets because they offer superior speed, 24/7 access, and instant liquidity.
However, by choosing this "advanced" technology to hide their actions, they are inadvertently creating a permanent, public, and immutable crime scene.
They are betting on today’s anonymity, ignoring tomorrow’s potential transparency.
When not if chain analysis links them they are cooked
Great CA Scoresby 📈
The title gave me chills as it reminded me of Jim Bell's Assassination Politics, which Timothy May (?) called the dark side of cypherpunk.
Does it legally have the same weight as stock insider trading? Such a bizarro world to be in. I almost feel like anyone that's dumb enough to wager on this shit expecting insiders to play fair deserves to get took though I have contempt for the insider as well.
The legal status is probably not that relevant if the address is no-KYC and coins can be cleaned for forward anonymity.
Ya but the anon set is really small as OP points out. It's one thing if you made $5000. It's another if you're raking in millions. I am sure there are enough people with contempt for this to punish this behavior - whether through the legal system or not.
This isn't the first time this has happened either. If I recall there were some suspiciously large bets placed by Garett Jin on Chanpeng Zhao getting pardoned right before he did. The same Garett Jin associated with a wallet that made some extremely well timed shorts on bitcoin in October minutes before trump tweets that dropped the market.
There's no real proof that it's Trump, but either somone in that administration has loose lips, or they have a security issue.
Or, they're insider trading? Occam's razor.
Right, it could be anybody, but I'm wondering if there is some way to use this defensively:
Here's one for you. Check polymarket for Venezuela outcomes and look for USA seizes BTC. Find the largest YES betters and plug the wallets into Arkam and see if they are loading up on OTM bitcoin calls.
That's your signal that Trump is going to announce a massive BTC seizure.
No doubt that was inside information.
I really appreciate your posts here. Because of that I read the full text waiting for your elaboration.
It is hard to dismiss what is laid out here as mere coincidence when there is such a tight alignment between wallet funding timelines transaction amounts and identity breadcrumbs. In markets like Polymarket where information asymmetry can swing outcomes dramatically the timing of bets is often the clearest signal of whether someone had privileged access.
Here the chain of deposits and withdrawals tied to names and ENS records that connect back to a known financier paints a strong circumstantial picture. The 99 percent match in amounts and the short intervals between moves suggest coordination rather than chance. Added to that is the suspicious purchase of Fartcoin soon after the profitable exit which reads less like random portfolio diversification and more like an intentional allocation of windfall gains.
The broader pattern in crypto prediction markets of perfectly timed trades tied to political and macro events raises an uncomfortable truth. If insiders in powerful networks are using these markets as opaque profit centers regulators and market operators are facing a serious integrity problem. It is one thing when markets price in rumors but it is another when trades are executed with precision just hours before events that only a limited number of people could have known about.
Why fartcoin?
I don't get that last part.
Related post:
Someone bet and won $400K on Maduro's Capture #1402882
https://twiiit.com/Andrey_10gwei/status/2007904168791454011