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3rd order thinking, was this an invitation to China to seize the separatist PM of Taiwan? We just laid that precedent on the international stage.

Moral equivalency of CIAwan vs Narco-terrorism aside, since China has a similar security rationale, it would be very expensive for China to take Taiwan with overwhelming force and it'd be extremely expensive for the US to defend it... I doubt think there's appetite from serious people for a major confrontation over that on either side.

This could be part of a back-channel negotiation, the US gives China a cheap W be removing the separatists knowing its far from our shores, and our Navy (and Japan) still controls their sea lanes and the pacific at large. We've been hedging TSMC for nearly a decade already.

This would pattern match with understanding Russia's security concerns re: Ukraine and little benefit to allowing most of Europe to nothing more than a cost-center. The 2025 strategy carves out for relations with only a handful of european countries that Russia would have either have no strategic interest nor the capability to inflict a heavy cost on US defense.

10 sats \ 8 replies \ @freetx 4 Jan
This could be part of a back-channel negotiation, the US gives China a cheap W be removing the separatists knowing its far from our shores and our Navy (and Japan) still controls their sea lanes and we've been hedging TSMC for nearly a decade already.

Quite possible.

Isn't TSMC opening a new chip fab on US soil? Timing may be right...

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TSMC opening a new chip fab on US soil

Yea, the chip wonks will say 90% of the tippy top chips are still made in Taiwan, but that number is trending down not up, and a forcing function would remove the bandaid pretty quickly. It's all just machines and machines are replicable/moveable.

Intel's new fabs are also very important, the whole investment under the fake Biden COG psyop only to reveal a national stake later is further evidence we'd rather invest domestically than waste trillions defending a CIA field office on the other side of the planet.

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Sub 2 nanometers...

TSMC rekt

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do you believe it?

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Doesn't matter if it's true or not, what matters is the narrative is being seeded that Taiwan isn't as critical for chips as some would use as justification to defend it

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17 sats \ 3 replies \ @freetx 6h

Good point. They've been speculation that Don-Roe is the deal cutting that has happened between US / China / Russia.

US gets untrammeled control of Western Hemi, Russia gets Ukraine, China gets Taiwan.

This fits with that narrative.

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That's my whole theory and consistent with the Q posts

#1405452

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US gets untrammeled control of Western Hemi, Russia gets Ukraine, China gets Taiwan.

Don't forget Saudis and Israel splitting the Middle East.

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Not so sure about that one...

Israel is a British/MI6 proxy

Saudi will be a Turkish protectorate

Erdogan may get his Caliphate