As I reflect on the past year and look toward the one ahead, there’s no question 2026 will be a pivotal year for AI. Yes, another one. But this moment feels different in a few notable ways.

We have moved past the initial phase of discovery and are entering a phase of widespread diffusion. We are beginning to distinguish between “spectacle” and “substance”. We now have a clearer sense of where the tech is headed, but also the harder and more important question of how to shape its impact on the world.

We are still in the opening miles of a marathon. Much remains unpredictable. Amidst this “model overhang,” where capability is outpacing our current ability to use it to have real world impact, this is some of what we still need to get right:

> As I reflect on the past year and look toward the one ahead, there’s no question 2026 will be a pivotal year for AI. Yes, another one. But this moment feels different in a few notable ways.
>
> We have moved past the initial phase of discovery and are entering a phase of widespread diffusion. We are beginning to distinguish between “spectacle” and “substance”. We now have a clearer sense of where the tech is headed, but also the harder and more important question of how to shape its impact on the world.
>
> We are still in the opening miles of a marathon. Much remains unpredictable. Amidst this “model overhang,” where capability is outpacing our current ability to use it to have real world impact, this is some of what we still need to get right:
> 
> ...