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I still expect it to damage the dollar on its way to failure though. We'll see.
I stand by my asterisk on that, dollar is still relative to other fiats, so there's a whole lot of milkshake drinking it can do to become the final boss fiat. There's roughly 180 other fiats even less fit to exist.
Possible though that instead of being the final boss fiat there could be a final boss duopoly... but that's counter-intuitive to me... finance trends towards centralization.
so there's a whole lot of milkshake drinking it can do to become the final boss fiat
My take as well...analogous to the Zebra saying he doesn't need to outrun the cheetah, only needs to outrun other Zebras....The US can use its muscle to collapse other regional currencies and force them to dollarize. The dollar only needs to be better than the other shitcoins.....
Bitcoin has the deepest straw, though, and it has a straw in the dollar's milkshake too.
My expectation first came to me before I came over to the dollar milkshake view, but I don't think they're incompatible.
This gold-token system might reduce the extent of dollarization, compared to what it otherwise would have been, and increase the adoption of dollar alternatives even after it fails.
The dollar probably will survive this gold-token but will be weaker on the other side than it would have been if all these countries had just kept their current fiats.
So many cross-currents to this shit its impossible to figure and trade, I agree if there's more gold derivatives that imparts less dollar demand.
One paradox I'm considering though might be that if gold rips in such a scenario, the dollar might benefit still if Bessent et al are more successful than other CB's in re-collateralizing. The big moves of gold from London to the US last year suggests there may be something to this.
Fun to speculate over the details of milestones while we hang in the waiting room for Stage 4 consensus 😂
One paradox I'm considering though might be that if gold rips in such a scenario, the dollar might benefit still if Bessent et al are more successful than other CB's in re-collateralizing.
Certainly the move would be for Treasury to revalue gold certs and mark-to-market. Suppose Gold hits $10K, treasury could do accounting trick and capture all that upside by simply moving away from the $42.222/oz statutory price set in 70s.
From that perspective, high Gold price helps US balance sheet.
Also private gold indirectly helps GDP via the wealth effect, the US being the capital for capital gives the government an incentive to ramp Gold and Bitcoin since an out-sized share of both are domiciled here.
Yep, this whole tokenized gold thing seems like a milestone on the inevitable