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Do you think it's more about FOSS expenditure, or more about increased control?
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Both. So on the one hand you have the "controlled ecosystem" theory that invaded Apple first and Google now (because they make shittons of money on the app stores) and Google is consolidating towards this.
On the other hand, internally AOSP got merged with Chrome and both got massively cut, because in a closed ecosystem, FOSS is a burden. This goes for both Chrome and Android.
So I think there is some cause-and-effect going on here, and assuming that it doesn't correct, I find the long-term outlook bleak without an AOSP fork. A fork will be incredibly expensive though.
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I feel that too. It's a direct result of Google cutting on FOSS expenditure and attempting to be more like Apple. I don't like that strategy, because it feels like another deviation from their original vision.
If Android is now perceived a burden for Google, the world will need a fork.