2025 wasn’t “a redistricting story.” It was the return of mid-decade redistricting as a national strategy, a way to blunt the normal midterm penalty by rewriting district lines before voters weigh in.
Both parties gerrymander, and not every map change is illegitimate. But the mechanism shifted after federal courts largely stepped out of policing partisan gerrymanders in 2019 (Rucho v. Common Cause). State legislatures filled the vacuum. With no federal backstop, “how far is too far?” moved to state constitutions, state courts, and voter pushback. That constraint set predictably rewards speed, timing, and pressure, and it turns redistricting into an arms race.
If the goal is accountability, focus on rules that constrain timing and process, not “which side is cheating harder.”
A clean definition helps: calling this “normal redistricting” is a category error. Normal redistricting is decennial and census-driven. Strategic mid-decade redistricting is optional redraws inside the decade, timed to the next election, justified as “legal authority” but aimed at seat math.
Once you see the incentives, the 2025 pattern becomes predictable: lock in a House majority before 2026 becomes a referendum on the party in power. Texas moved first, targeting around 5 seats. Actions triggered reactions: California voters passed Prop 50 to use legislatively drawn maps starting in 2026. Indiana Republicans refused a redraw despite national pressure. Missouri opponents pushed a referendum to block their legislature’s map.
What emerges is a system where the rules allow rapid map changes, which makes advantage-seeking rational and retaliation inevitable, state by state, election by election.
I’ll relax if red and blue states pass bright-line bans on mid-decade redraws (except court order or census) or adopt a process neither party can steer.
So what’s the least-bad fix: ban mid-decade redraws outright, or allow them only under a constrained protocol (commissions with transparency and fixed criteria)?
Sources
- POLITICO (2025 redistricting war narrative)
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/31/the-redistricting-fight-that-dominated-american-politics-in-2025-00703193 - SCOTUS baseline (why federal courts don’t police partisan gerrymanders) — Rucho (2019) opinion PDF
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/18-422_9ol1.pdf - Texas example (~5 seats)
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/30/texas-redistricting-congressional-maps-house-republicans/ - California escalation (Prop 50 official quick reference)
https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/quick-reference-guide/50.htm - Indiana resistance (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/setback-trump-indiana-republicans-drop-congressional-redistricting-effort-2025-11-14/ - Missouri referendum pushback
https://missouriindependent.com/2025/12/09/missouri-gerrymander-congressional-map-referendum/